Consumer Spending – Global Outlook
A. Estimated Consumer Spending
2015
Total $45trn = 100% of global consumer spending (60% of World GDP)
Advanced Economies $30trn = 2/3 of consumer spending (40% of World GDP)
Emerging economies $15trn = 1/3 of idem (20% of World GDP)
2025
Total $72trn = 100% of consumer spend & 66% of GDP
Advanced Economies $36trn = 50% of total consumer spend (33% of World GDP)
Emerging Economies $36trn = 50% of idem (33% of World GDP)
B. Estimated World Gross Domestic Product (GDP – USD trn)
2015
World GDP $75trn (100% of World GDP)
Advanced economies $45trn (60% of World GDP)
Emerging economies $30trn (40% of World GDP)
World GDP $110trn (100% of World GDP)
Advanced economies $55trn (50% of World GDP)
Emerging economies $55trn (50% of World GDP)
Conclusion: Emerging economies will boost economic growth and consumer spending
C. Consumer Spending – Determinants of change
Demographic
-
- continued growth emerging and low-income countries
- changing age structure (age groups, median age)
- demographic movements around the globe
- urbanisation
- a growing middle class of consumers
Economic
-
- economic outlook
- consumer confidence
- consumer behaviour and attitude
- total income (GDP – nominal, PPP)
- average income (GDP per capita – nominal, PPP)
- disposable income (= avg minus taxes)
- idem households
- unemployment
- inflation
- currency exchange rates (fluctuations)
Technological progress
-
- in all areas related to consumer spending in particular the further penetration and integration of online, mobile and social networks
D. Definitions and further clarification