IORMA Art Market Update 2025
Pandora Mather-Lees
IORMA Luxury Director
April 2025
This update brings together some key market reports, industry data, and insights from influential figures in the art world. Together they offer a clear perspective on the market’s current state and its likely direction in the months ahead.
The coming year will be defined by a tension between domestic focus and global ambitions and also by the evolving shifts in our cultural psyche, not to mention the industry’s ongoing reckoning with its brick-and-mortar past. Here IORMA breaks it down to present several 2025 art trends and shifts that will test the art world’s mettle.
As the art world continues to evolve, so too do the habits of collectors. How have spending patterns shifted over the past year? Moreover, what impact is the transfer of wealth between generations having on the market? The Art Basel & UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024, conducted by Arts offered a snapshot of collector behaviour. The report explores their motivations, spending, engagement with galleries and artists, and participation in events. The next report will be due in the Spring and IORMA will be reviewing the new data.
Last year’s survey, the most extensive to date, gathered responses from 3,660 collectors across 14 key art markets, including Brazil, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mainland China, Mexico, Singapore, Switzerland, Taiwan, the UK, and the US. The findings reveal a market in transition. Indeed, it is one that remains resilient in the face of economic challenges while embracing new trends.
Despite uncertainties, optimism among collectors is on the rise. A striking 91% of HNW’s expressed confidence in the global art market’s performance over the coming months, a notable increase from 77% at the close of 2023. In fact, spending patterns in early 2024 suggest a stabilising market with median expenditure on art and antiques reaching $25,555. If this trend continues overall spending levels could hold steady.
Collectors also demonstrated a strong appetite for discovery. In fact, 88% of those purchasing from dealers in 2023 and 2024 acquiring works from at least one new gallery. This willingness to engage with fresh perspectives reflects their support for emerging talent. More than half of total expenditure (52%) was dedicated to new and emerging artists, while 21% went to mid-career artists, and 26% to established names, the majority of whom were living.
The market in Mainland China continued to stand out for its high level of activity. In both 2023 and the first half of 2024, the region’s HNW collectors reported the highest median expenditure on art and antiques at $97,000. This is more than double that of any other market. France followed at $38,000, with Italy, the UK, and Hong Kong also reporting strong figures at $32,000, $31,000, and $28,000, respectively.
Another notable shift has been the decline in impulse buying. Spontaneous purchases dropped sharply from 10% in 2023 to just 1%, as collectors placed greater emphasis on research before acquiring works. At the same time, there has been a significant rise in the representation of female artists in collections. The share of works by women reached a seven-year high of 44%, marking an important step toward greater inclusivity in the art world.
Individual collectors aside, overall the findings confirmed a period of mixed fortunes – while global art sales slowed in 2023, China bucked the trend, with a 9% increase, bringing total sales to $12.2 billion. Online transactions also grew, though the most valuable artworks continue to change hands in traditional settings such as galleries, auction houses, and fairs.
Global sales experienced a 4% decline, falling to $65 billion, though they remain above pre-pandemic levels of $64.4 billion. Rising interest rates and inflation created a less favourable environment for those acquiring art as an investment with some shifting capital toward financial markets. However, China emerged as a major exception, surpassing the UK to become the world’s second-largest art market. As such it now accounts for 19% of global sales, while the UK slipped to 17%. This shift is driven by a surge in art fairs, new institutions such as the Centre Pompidou Shanghai and a growing culture of collecting in that region. That said, the methodology used to assess market size raises questions, and in practical terms, China and the UK likely remain more or less on par.
The United States maintained its position as the world’s largest art market, accounting for 42% of global sales, despite a 10% drop in total sales value. This decline is primarily attributed to fewer ultra-high-value sales at the top end of the market, in contrast to record-breaking auctions in 2022, such as Christie’s historic $1.6 billion sale of the late Paul Allen’s collection. The reported figures may even understate the dominance of the U.S. because many American buyers acquire art abroad in markets like London and Hong Kong. With this factor considered, the U.S. likely represents closer to 50% of global art transactions.
While online art sales increased by 7%, reaching $11.8 billion, double their 2019 level, the highest-value artworks remain largely offline. 95% of online sales involved works under $50,000, reinforcing the idea that serious collectors and institutions still prefer to transact in person. 30% of dealers identified art fairs as their most important source of new buyers, underscoring the continued importance of physical events. Even buyers who purchase online often do so for works they have already viewed in person.
Gallery and dealer sales contracted slightly, down 3%, following two years of steady growth. However, this figure conceals an underlying trend: while some high-end dealers saw a slowdown, smaller galleries and emerging dealers experienced growth. The mid-tier market remains the most vulnerable, squeezed between the resilience of the top-end – driven by the super collectors – and the continued influx of speculative buyers at the lower end.
Despite these shifts, profitability among dealers remains strong. 49% of galleries reported higher sales in 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels, and among those with the highest turnover, 72% reported an increase. This reflects a broader pattern in which financial market gains fuel art acquisitions among the wealthiest collectors.
Public auctions, meanwhile, saw a 7% decline in sales following a record-breaking 2022. This was largely due to a scarcity of top-tier works coming to market, combined with the appeal of more liquid investment opportunities amid persistently high interest rates.
We recently interviewed Jessica Frances, founder member of The Art Due Diligence Group and founder of Vitruvian Fine Art Brokerage. Whilst the interview will be published later by IORMA, a summary of insights is presented here. Vitruvian Fine Art Brokerage has observed a rapidly evolving art market driven by new collectors from young CEOs to entrepreneurs who bring fresh perspectives and considerable buying power. The Vitruvian Art Collectors Club reflects a wide range of interests, including passionate support for underrepresented artists, such as Black and diaspora creators, women, and LGBTQ+ voices. This dedicated focus on diversity is reshaping narratives and expanding the possibilities for future collections. Meanwhile, collaboration across auction houses, curators, galleries, and advisors continues to fuel innovation and growth. Finally, advancements in technology – particularly digital art, NFTs, and AI – are poised to further transform the market, ensuring a bright and dynamic future.
Looking ahead, the U.S. and UK face continued economic and political difficulties while China is poised for further growth. Nevertheless, beyond the fluctuations of any given year, the broader trajectory of the art world remains one of creativity and reinvention. Collectors may be adapting their strategies, but the long-term outlook remains one of resilience and opportunity.
These insights suggest a market that is both evolving and stabilising. Collectors are exercising greater discernment in their purchases, embracing new voices, and reinforcing their commitment to supporting contemporary and emerging artists. While economic pressures remain, confidence in the future of the art market is strong.
Technology Update: The Rise of AI in the Art Market
Aligning with IORMA’s principles of explorting and predicting future trends in technology we examine here the effects of AI on the art market.
The intersection of artificial intelligence and art suggests unprecedented growth, reshaping how art is created, valued, and appreciated. In 2024, the AI-driven art market was valued at $3.2 billion and projections indicate a staggering expansion to $40.4 billion by 2033, reflecting a CAGR of 28.9%. Even more striking, the AI art segment alone is expected to grow at an accelerated CAGR of 36.8% over the same period. This is a far cry from the first ever sale in 2017 by Christie’s of the AI generated artwork of Edmond de Belamy for $432,500; this piece soared above estimates a the time – perhaps a precursor to what was to come.
The broader generative AI market, which includes AI systems that create entirely new content, is also on a meteoric rise. This sector is projected to grow from $13.5 billion in 2024 to $255.8 billion by 2033, demonstrating AI’s increasing role in the creative landscape.
In 2024, cloud-based deployment models dominated the AI in art sector, accounting for 65% of the market while machine learning held over 40% of the market share. This dominance underscores the shift toward AI-powered tools that leverage advanced computing infrastructure to drive innovation.
Geographically, North America emerged as the leader, generating over 40% of total revenue in the AI art market. This represented approximately $1.2 billion in 2024. As the epicenter of technological advancement, the region continues to drive AI’s integration into creative fields.
AI is also becoming an integral tool for digital artists with 29% incorporating AI into their creative process. Despite this shift, human input remains essential. In fact, 53.6% of artists believe their contribution is fundamental when working with AI-assisted artwork.
Looking ahead, AI-generated art is expected to represent 5% of the total contemporary art market during 2025. Based on current projections, the AI art market is estimated to reach $5.3 billion during 2025, reflecting sustained enthusiasm for AI-driven creativity.
At its core, this market blends cutting-edge technology with the timeless allure of artistic expression. AI is not only redefining artistic creation but also reshaping perceptions of value and appreciation in the art world. As advancements in machine learning and cloud-based solutions continue, AI’s role in art is set to expand, offering creators new ways to push the boundaries of their work.
References:
The Art Basel and UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024 | UBS Global
Eight Trends In The 2024 Global Art Market
Global AI in the Art Market Statistics 2025